Statistics - How can we be 95% sure that this trading robot is systematically profitable and not a series of lucky trades?

• Tình trạng: Closed
• Giải thưởng: \$100
• Các bài thi đã nhận: 1
• Người chiến thắng: dglorifier

Tóm tắt cuộc thi

Seal and guarantee:

I traded forex / stock for 10 years and automated one of my most simple strategy to be a Robot (EA). From 500 USD initially, it generated a profit of 2,678 USD (total account is 3,178 USD) after 6 months.

My question regards statistics:
How can we be 95% sure this trading robot is systematically profitable and not a series of lucky trades? Is this time base measuring (after some given months) or trade based (after some given trades) approaches?

After you prove that this is profitable already, show me in excel file with explanation if I trade the same with this criteria, after how many trades then I am 95% sure that I double my account. With my win rate is range from 65% to 88%

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- The EA started with 500 USD, after any trade, either it loses or wins, we will deposit or withdraw so the account remains at 500 USD awaiting for next trade. This helps remove the noise so the EA always has the same environment to compute each time. Also, if there is a loss, it stops for 24 hours so nothing related from last trade to next trade.
- It trades only 2 pairs EURUSD and GPBUSD.
- In any given time is only one trade.
- Win rate is 88%, 69 win trades / 78 total trades (6th month stat);
- On average, it wins 68\$ a trade. (6th month stat)
- On average, it loses 232\$ a trade. (6th month stat)

Fig 1 - Profit from 500 USD initially (attached)

You can find details stats in real time at [login to view URL] - it will show 100% negative in return because if a trade is lose then we re-deposit using its own profit that we have withdrawn previously.

- Could you please only calculate base on EURUSD and GBPUSD, please remove the other trades, consider they are noise. Also only calculate the EURUSD and GBPUSD trade with lot size = 1 lot; as I believe there are 1 or 2 first trade I made with small lot size to test.
- Pips is use in forex to know how much you get because the profit change if you increase size of the trade and decrease vice versa. However in this case since every trade is the same 1 lot in 500 USD account so you don’t have to care that.
- I am not statistician nor researcher .. so please try to explain as normal languages.
- Please also state the question how many trade then my account will be double in profit
- Live test this and I put money where my mouth is so I dont think this is pure luck anymore, but need to make 95% confident of how many trades then I am in profit and how many then 500\$ become 1000\$. That would be less tress for me in the few 1st trades in loss.
- I may need to talk with you use zoom, please install it.

Huyen X. Vu
26/10/2018

Winner

Phản hồi của người thuê

“honor to work with”

DeepDriller, Vietnam.

Bảng thông báo công khai

• rajeshkumararora
• cách đây 1 tháng

Hello friend. Thanks for your new question. This is a contest and getting money is not guaranteed. But I still helped you. I already did work worth \$20. Once you give payment, we can further work together. Thanks.

• cách đây 1 tháng
• Chủ cuộc thi
• cách đây 1 tháng

Manju if you are starting from trade 1, then trade 2, then trade 3... in what trade you can say 95% that the system is profitable? if the win rate is 80% and win amount 68\$, lose amount 232\$?

• cách đây 1 tháng
1. rajeshkumararora
• cách đây 1 tháng

With a win rate of 88%, minimum trade required is 29.

• cách đây 1 tháng
• rajeshkumararora
• cách đây 1 tháng

I can help u more, if interested.

• cách đây 1 tháng
• rajeshkumararora
• cách đây 1 tháng

#guaranteed

• cách đây 1 tháng

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