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Java forecast method given time series, but the readings reset!

I need a java method that will predict the due date given a series of machine engine hour readings. The catch is that the readings are reset every time the machine is serviced. Below is an example set of readings assuming the machine is serviced every 500 hours.

Date Reading

01-Jan-12 100

01-Feb-12 200

01-Mar-12 300

01-Apr-12 400

01-May-12 500 (machine is serviced, the counter is reset)

01-Jun-12 100 (First reading after the service).

01-Jul-12 200

01-Aug-12 300

01-Sep-12 400

01-Oct-12 500

01-Nov-12 100

One possible solution would be to calculate the total hours as a "third" column. This will allow simple forecasting on time series. The issue then is how to set the independent variable since we know that the machine must be serviced every 500 hours, not say at 4000 hours. Another option is to use only the data points since the reset, but then the history adds no value to the accuracy of the prediction.

The requirements is that the method can be called at anytime and the reading history will be used to calculate the next due date.

I am happy to respond to clarification questions.

Example machine running hours. Note the counter is reset on 30-04-2013 (dd-mm-yyyy). The machine is planned to be service at every 8000 hours but was done in this case at 7000 because it was convenient. The system should calculate the expected due date the machine will reach 8000 hours. I expect the date will be somewhere in Q2 2014.

Kĩ năng: Java, Toán học, Statistics

Xem nhiều hơn: time series, method, jan reset, forecast, data forecasting, java reading, java calculate, java time series forecast, java simple example, questions statistics, forecasting accuracy, sep nov, nov 2013, given, simple method java, time counter simple, time series forecasting, use method, hour counter, java data forecast

Về Bên Thuê:
( 12 nhận xét ) Athens, Greece

ID dự án: #4566073

5 freelancer đang chào giá trung bình $126 cho công việc này

eperfections

JAVA EXPERT ! Also worked on data mining prediction algorithms. I can develop this app. Would all the history be similar to the sample in project description ?

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shenchilang

Experienced java developer.

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danmoliver

Hi, I am a Sun Certified Java Programmer with the experience. Please see private message for more details. Dan

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JavierV

Hi georgeros! I love doing automated tasks, let me help you!

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thangqn

Hello, sir. I will be happy to help you do this project. I have 4 years experience with Java. I can finish the project on time and satisfy all your requirements. But can you tell me more details about how the due data Thêm

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