Alicia M.

I have a PhD in the area of Simulation (Discrete event and Monte Carlo) and have been teaching and working in this area for more than 20 years. Along with my students, we looked at how Monte Carlo could be successfully used to provide guidance when selecting a portfolio. By using past history, it is possible to identify either a probability distribution or a time series distribution that can be used to forecast future returns. What we did was to use not only past history but also to incorporate the potential impact of different possible risks, such as recession, inflation, exchange rate changes, just to name a few. Inclusion of these risk factors usually has an important impact on the results and at the same time provides guidance about possible steps that can be taken to protect the investment. All this makes me highly qualified for this project